Posted in china, inflation, volatility on December 30, 2007 | 1 Comment »
I don’t read the Economist much. I think of it as a Time Magazine for the mid-brow transnational elite: a crystallization of conventional wisdom, and therefore a powerful contrary indicator.
But sometimes, they are right. Their latest article on China, “Flashing Red,” is an excellent layman’s summary of why investing in China is so insane.
THE scene [...]
Posted in culture on December 30, 2007 | No Comments »
I was watching the trip-hop “The Way I Are” music video, and I wandered to the song’s Wikipedia entry because I have wondered what 3 English footballers could possibly have to do with an American rap/ hip-hop song. (There were 3 UK footballers in the video.) I didn’t get an answer to that question, but [...]
Posted in dollar, doomsterism, federal reserve, inflation, monetary policy on December 29, 2007 | No Comments »
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I need to figure out how to widen the main column of the page (this one). I wish I didn’t have to squish these graphs so much.
Posted in china, doomsterism, politics, volatility on December 29, 2007 | No Comments »
[in translation]This is how it was …
A female student was bicycling down the right side of the street on her way back to the dormitory, and a Buick vehicle came along in the same direction. The two vastly different vehicles collided with each other, and the bicycle left [...]
Posted in geopolitics, politics, volatility on December 29, 2007 | No Comments »
Pakistan: Stores Opening In Karachi
December 29, 2007 1532 GMT
More people are appearing on the streets, and stores are beginning to open in Karachi, Pakistan, a Stratfor source in the city reported Dec. 29. The situation is getting back to normal, the source said.
Pakistan will be fine, as long as the government settles on a [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, politics, volatility, war on December 28, 2007 | 3 Comments »
Car bomb hits busy Baghdad market
At least 14 people have been killed in a car bombing at a busy market in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, police and hospital officials have said.
At least 64 people were wounded in the explosion, which happened at about 1300 (1000 GMT) in a square crowded with shoppers after [...]
Posted in china, dollar, euro, inflation, monetary policy, wall street on December 28, 2007 | No Comments »
Plunging MZM = bullish. MZM has been historically high, and is now dropping rapidly.
Plunging commercial lending ( = TOTCI) = bearish. Commercial credit is also at a secular extreme — although the 2001-04 plunge was also a secular extreme.
The dollar has tanked a lot in recent days, which implies that MZM is falling with it [...]
Posted in wall street on December 28, 2007 | No Comments »
Now this is a great idea. Much as Buffett exasperates me, this is what makes him a great businessman.
MBIA, Ambac Fall as Buffett Starts Up Bond Insurance Business
By Christine Richard and Josh P. Hamilton
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) — MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the two largest bond insurers, fell in New York Stock [...]
Posted in geopolitics, politics, volatility on December 28, 2007 | No Comments »
The Bhutto assassination has obscured my ability to figure out what else is going on in the world. Too much noise in the spectrum.
Nobody knows what will happen in Pakistan until patterns emerge among the disparate rioting throughout the country, which will take a couple of days to discern, at the very least. I wish [...]
Posted in geopolitics, politics, volatility, war on December 27, 2007 | 3 Comments »
I have long believed that strategic success is achieved not by making extraordinary calculations in ordinary times, but rather by making ordinary calculations in extraordinary times. So while the world mourns Bhutto, here’s my icy assessment.
Bhutto was a terrible PM of Pakistan. She was Pakistan’s Yeltsin — a kleptarch whose “reforms” made for a great [...]
Posted in geopolitics, politics on December 27, 2007 | No Comments »
Pakistan: Bhutto’s Assassination
Stratfor Today » December 27, 2007 | 1442 GMT
Summary
Top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Dec. 27, and unrest has already begun across the country.
Analysis
Top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was [...]
Posted in china, doomsterism, environment, inflation, monetary policy, volatility on December 27, 2007 | No Comments »
Michael Pettis is the best China-centric theoretical-finance commentator I have come across in the no-fees blogosphere. He has posted another good article, which focuses on the PBOC’s latest interest-rate adjustment.
For the sixth time this year the People’s Bank of China raised interest rates, which was not a surprise. The PBoC raised its 1-year benchmark lending [...]
Posted in doomsterism, geopolitics, iraq, politics, war on December 27, 2007 | No Comments »
Malaysia has signed a $16 billion energy deal to develop two Iranian natural gas fields.
Mike Feldman, the other uber-commenter of this blog, says that the people who depend on George Soros for dinner and who must toe the CIA line to have a prayer of decent future earnings say The Think Tank Consensus is that [...]
Posted in dollar, doomsterism, geopolitics, volatility, war on December 26, 2007 | No Comments »
Oil and gold are now at “real” highs. $99 oil and $839 gold were achieved with a dollar that was 4-5% weaker than today’s dollar.
CURRENCIES
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
EUR-USD
1.4502
0.0098
0.68
USD-JPY
114.0600
-0.0800
-0.07
GBP-USD
1.9834
0.0046
0.24
COMMODITY FUTURES
VALUE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
Oil
96.33
2.20
2.34
Gold
825.60
9.10
1.11
Natural Gas
7.00
-0.02
-0.33
Posted in dollar on December 26, 2007 | No Comments »
Hmmm.
Japan fights back with 60-point master plan
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:58pm GMT 25/12/2007
Japan has launched its biggest financial shake-up in a decade to regain lost business from London and meet the fast-rising challenge of Shanghai.
A sweeping package of 60 measures will give special tax exemptions to hedge funds, and allow companies to make simplified disclosures in [...]
Posted in bush, geopolitics, politics, war on December 25, 2007 | No Comments »
According to the BBC,
More than 30 people have been killed and scores injured in suicide bombings in northern Iraq.
A car bomber killed more than 20 people when he was stopped by police and local militias in Baiji, about 250km (155 miles) north of Baghdad.
Later, a suicide bomber killed 10 people in Baquba, at [...]
Posted in bush, geopolitics, iraq, politics, war on December 25, 2007 | 11 Comments »
I hope this Robert Novak article puts the final nail in the coffin of Stratfor’s “the NIE was all part of a Bush geopolitical master plan” theory. (Another discussion thread, of varying degrees of quality, can be found here.)
If Friedman doesn’t change his line on the NIE pretty soon, we will have to start marking [...]
Posted in doomsterism, inflation, volatility, wall street on December 24, 2007 | 2 Comments »
via
Treasuries Decline as Rising U.S. Stocks Reduce Appeal of Debt
By Deborah Finestone
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) — Treasury notes fell as U.S. stock indexes gained, reducing investor interest in the safety of government debt.
Equities rose as Merrill Lynch & Co. sold most of its [...]
Posted in dollar on December 23, 2007 | No Comments »
Thaksin Shinawatra will be returning to Thailand.
After the Thai military overthrew Thaksin’s government, Thaksin’s colossal wealth — almost certainly higher than the stated $2 billion or so — continued to fund Thailand’s political opposition. The military had vowed to restore democracy within a relatively short time frame, and now they’re stuck with the outcome.
Thaksin’s proxy [...]
Posted in haha on December 23, 2007 | 4 Comments »
So Barry Ritholtz has also noticed the rising trend of economists who embarrass their profession via “provocative” “studies” which fly in the face of real world experience.
Much of investing relates to mathematics and the application of statistics. Markets are statistical data generating machines, and that data can be sliced and diced in a myriad of [...]
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