Calling junk ‘AAA’ doesn’t change the fact that it’s junk

What the debt market believes, and what the ‘Save the Sheeple’ monolines/ banks/ realtors caucus believes, are clearly two very different things.

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) — Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s say MBIA Inc. has enough capital to withstand losses and justify its AAA rating. MBIA’s debt investors aren’t so convinced.

Credit-default swaps indicating the risk that Armonk, New York-based MBIA’s bond insurance unit won’t be able to meet its obligations are trading at similar levels to companies such as homebuilder Pulte Homes Inc., which is rated 10 steps lower.

The discrepancy illustrates the skepticism debt investors have about the safety of MBIA’s rating after the company posted $3.4 billion of losses on subprime mortgages last quarter. Moody’s and S&P both said that while at least $4 billion of writedowns lie ahead, MBIA’s management has made enough changes to warrant the top rating.

“Pardon me if I find this a little hard to believe,” said Richard Larkin, director of research at municipal-bond brokerage Herbert J. Sims & Co. in Iselin, New Jersey. “This is basically the same management that put MBIA into this hole in the first place.’‘

Moody’s yesterday ended a five-week review of MBIA, the world’s largest bond insurer, removing the threat of an imminent downgrade. S&P did the same a day earlier and also affirmed the top rating of New York-based Ambac Financial Group Inc., the second-biggest. Ambac is still under review from both S&P and Moody’s.

Credit-Default Swaps

Credit-default swaps tied to MBIA’s insurance unit rose 3 basis points today to 363 basis points, according to London-based CMA Datavision. The contracts, which rise as investors see increased risk and fall when confidence improves, have dropped 24 basis points the past three days. That’s still up from less than 100 as recently as October. The contracts rose above 720 last month as banks, securities firms and investors used them to hedge against the risk that the firm wouldn’t be able to make good on its insurance obligations.

Contracts on Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based Pulte are trading at about 370 basis points, CMA price show. The BB+ rated homebuilder has reported five straight quarterly losses. The company is considered junk, or below investment grade.

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.