I was amazed when Hillary managed to win the “second super Tuesday” showdown in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. However, this fundamentally does not change the fact that Hillary is facing a forced checkmate.
Obama won Wyoming about 60-40, meaning that Hillary’s pledged delegate gap (the delegates allocated on the basis of “the will of the people” primaries and caucuses) has yawned two delegates wider — 1387 to 1238.
On Tuesday, Mississippi will vote. Its population is about 37 percent black. I expect Obama to mop up 80 percent of the state’s delegates. Clinton will probably win Pennsylvania by about fifteen points, and Kentucky and Indiana will be friendly turf for her as well–but North Carolina will be heavily favored for Obama.
Clinton is toast.
The markets need to factor Obama in, and the market particularly needs to know what Obama will do about the capital gains tax rate, which is set to reset immediately after Obama takes office. A restoration of the pre-2003 capital gains structure (20 percent long term, sliding scale up to 35 percent — 40 once the Democrats kill the income tax cut — in the near term) will mean a drop in equities prices of 10 to 15 percent.
The ongoing Clinton-Obama battle threatens to undermine the Dems in the general election. She self-servingly claims he hasn’t got the wide national appeal to win in the states where there are the numbers.
As well, some talk the Republicans are encouraging his party candidacy as he can’t win the presidency.
No previous election had the variables of this one.
MF
Republicans are encouraging Obama’s candidacy because they think he can’t win the election? Nothing could be further from the truth …
The observation, courtesy of some persuasive political analysts, could be totally wrong. But unquestionably the Democratic internecine war only benefits the opposite side.
Looks now like it could never happen, but Hillary as Obama’s VP would be the strongest front for them.
I would be very surprised if Obama could pull in enough of the key states in the general election. But circumstances in this time are very different from any time before.
The “New Kennedy’ change buzz might just carry through. We’ll see.
MF
Hillary offers absolutely nothing to Obama. Obama has infinite money. He shreds his authenticity by dragging Hillary along.
Obama will carry Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, and very possibly FL and Nevada, to call a few… especially FL/NV because they are ground zero of this cycle’s recession.
Obama will make Democrats more competitive all across the South because black turnout will be through the roof. They won’t take any states over but they will strengthen their hand across the region. In states like North Carolina, where a powerful local Democratic machine somehow survived 12 barren years, it will be enough to very possibly sweep out people like Liddy Dole.
McCain might make Michigan and Pennsylvania competitive. But that’s pretty much it.
This could be very prescient, or turn out to be projections based on how things look in early March. Perceptions of candidates are changing rapidly. Hard to say what they will be at the end of the year.
I consider Hillary to be bad news, and am not clear as to whether is of further value to the Democrats. Right now it looks like she is prepared to sabotage Obama’s possibilities.
I would only predict something unpredictable will happen.