Clinton wins PA by 7 points.
Even if she won by double digits, it wouldn’t be enough.
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What’s your prognostication for the remaining states - IN, WV, KY, and OR? Would Obama be able to take all?
Out of curiosity - Would you say that the conservatives would rather have her as democratic candidate than Barak Obama?
- Shankar
Obama will certainly take North Carolina, probably by 25 points. I suspect he will win Indiana as well, although it will be close. After May 6 (NC/IN) the Democratic race will be over. If it keeps going, Clinton will win WV and KY in landslides, and Obama will win Oregon by 15 or so points.
The Republicans would unquestionably prefer to face Hillary; no contest whatsoever there.
That’s what I thought all along - Republicans would rather prefer (to go against) Hillary than Obama. That is how I interpreted their attacks on Obama.
So, you think:
1. McCain vs Hillary - Hilary Wins?
2. McCain vs Obama - Obama Wins?
I would agree with the second.
The big question is how do - economy and war turn out? If they are OK by then, then McCain would probably win, else Hillary.
Shankar
I think the Democrats will certainly win in the second case.
I do not think Hillary would win in the first case, because Obama would be insane (imo) to be her VP; and turnout among D-sympathizing 18-29’s, as well as blacks, would crash. Basically it would be a rerun of 2000 — the same old heuristics bandied about, the same trench warfare, and the same low turnout.
An Obama nomination will probably commence mark the end of Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado as Republican bastions, whereas very gray PA would move decisively into the Republican column. Tennessee and North Carolina will become permanently more competitive.
Increasingly, “GOP” stands for “Gray Old Party,” sadly.