A shot across Iran’s bow
April 25, 2008 by E. Cartman
4 Responses to “A shot across Iran’s bow”
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BTW, Mish made a similar case today - which you had made a few day ago. (Suspicious activity in middle east.)
Still looking for the attack on Iranian facilities?
Any update on the date? I know we had a disagreement over that. I am now thinking that the date could be as early as next week or the week after.
I better get those airline tickets soon. ;-)
- Shankar
Shankar,
Most elements of Bush’s administration do not want a war with Iran, including Secdef Gates, Rice, Hayden (CIA), and others. However, they are also not completely closed to the possibility.
It’s certainly in the best interests of Syria and Iran to wait until after the US elections. The question is whether the various factions of the Bush Administration understand that well enough to feel the need to damage Iran’s bargaining position before then.
If they feel that Obama will squander a lot of what US security services have gained in Iraq in the past two years, they will pre-empt Iran with overt strikes.
The bottom line is that I would not short oil as long as Bush is in power.
Thanks for the tip on Oil.
Thankfully I don’t have a big position and it has very tight stop loss. Can get out at negligible loss, but in any case I think the Fed is probably going to adopt a tough posture (at least talk) that Oil will back down sharply in the next 1-2 weeks.
That’s the bet. Let’s see how it works out.
Shankar
BTW, you may be underestimating Ms. Rice. A good book on the subject is - ‘ Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush’s War Cabinet’ by James Mann. It outlines how the ground work for the war was completed by the time Bush got his Presidency.