Didn’t get this memo. No sir.
Fetch your tin helmets once again. The European Central Bank is opting for a monetary purge. So too is the US Federal Reserve, now ruled from Dallas.
Über-hawks and Cromwellians have gained the upper hand at the great fortress banks. Whether or not they admit it, both are embarked on policies that must lead to retrenchment across the Atlantic world.
The City mood turned wicked as the full import of this policy switch sank in last week. On Wall Street, the Dow’s 396-point dive on high volume late Friday had an ugly feel.
“There is now the distinct possibility of a simultaneous sell-off in global bonds, equities and commodities,” said Jonathan Wilmot from Credit Suisse.
I dunno. I saw Lehman almost die again, and we all knew that the Fed was ready to fire a paper fusillade in the hole.
Trichet’s hawkishness is not in doubt. Bernanke’s is. Spain and Ireland do not a dovish majority make.
Bernanke’s hawkishness is in doubt.
Holding rates steady is hardly the behavior of an inflation ‘hawk.’ Who is kidding whom? National elections are in five months, and Congress goes home to campaign for re-election beginning on July 4. The Fed is going to fight inflation in the few months just before a national election?
As always, central bank “credibility,” or the lack thereof, moves markets. Jawboning to influence markets will work once, maybe twice, but will forever damage the all-important credibility of a central banker.