Posted in bush, doomsterism, geopolitics, iraq, politics, war on May 29, 2008 | No Comments »
As noted here time and again, Iran has nothing to lose by waiting out the end of George Bush’s term.
May 29, 2008 | 1944 GMT
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said May 29 that Iran thinks U.S. voters want to change the foreign policies of President George W. Bush, and he said that the present U.S. [...]
Posted in dawn to decadence, geopolitics, iraq, politics, war on May 18, 2008 | 3 Comments »
via
Sunday night, May 11, the Israeli army was poised to strike Hizballah. The Shiite militia was winding up its takeover of West Beirut and battling pro-government forces in the North. When he opened the regular cabinet meeting Sunday, May 11, prime minister Ehud Olmert had already received the go-ahead from Washington for a military strike [...]
Posted in iraq, war on May 17, 2008 | 2 Comments »
Iran has puzzled the global oil market by having 20 large tankers filled with crude oil. Why is Iran holding on to so much oil, given what a suppliers’ market oil is right now?
Iranian oil is not just oil. It’s very “heavy”/ “dirty” oil. Iran could coagulate strategic parts of the Persian Gulf with massive [...]
Posted in dawn to decadence, doomsterism, iraq, politics, war on May 14, 2008 | 5 Comments »
[edited and tempered a bit--EC]
I’ve wanted to talk about something that’s been simmering for a long time in my mind, namely the obvious institutional dysfunction of the West in the face of Muslim, particularly Shia, tribal fortitude.
There are two kinds of societies: unstructured, tribal societies, and structured, institutional societies. The Bush Administration’s Iraq odyssey has [...]
Posted in dawn to decadence, iraq, politics, war on May 12, 2008 | No Comments »
When you leave US policy in the hands of the surrender monkeys at State, the result is that a few even more narcissistic clones of Strobe Talbott puff up their images as The Great Peacemakers, The Great Negotiators, the lone doves standing between us and Armageddon … while our few credible allies, be they in [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, war on May 9, 2008 | No Comments »
Oil hopped past $126 today, which is all the more remarkable considering that if you measure oil in terms of the weaker USD from 3-5 weeks ago, oil would be over $130/barrel.
Israel appears to have given Syria the warning that if so much as a single truck crosses Syria into Lebanon, Israel and Syria will [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, politics, war on May 7, 2008 | No Comments »
It seems like the latest (American-triggered?) Olmert scandal will be fatal to Olmert. Which is fortunate, because the US has some serious Iran escalations to do, if it hopes to retain a meaningful stake in Iraq’s future.
Faster, please.
After another day of rampant rumors concerning the latest criminal investigation into Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, members of [...]
Posted in bush, geopolitics, iraq, politics, volatility, war on May 3, 2008 | No Comments »
The Times of London is known to be the sieve of choice for neoconservative news leaks. Given all the concentration of firepower in the Persian Gulf recently, as well as the crackdowns on al-Sadr, and the fact that Bush wants to scare Iran off to some extent before he leaves office, some kind of surgical [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, politics on April 25, 2008 | 7 Comments »
I generally agree with Stratfor’s take on the issue.
… it would appear that the United States briefed deliberately against Israeli wishes. Certainly, the Israelis didn’t participate in the process. One answer could be that the United States is unhappy about Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s moves on Syria and wants to derail them.
… there are [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq on April 20, 2008 | No Comments »
Debkafile was right, this time.
A week ago:
Iran’s position as the greatest threat to Iraq was highlighted by Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker in their testimony to Congress last week - to the point that al Qaeda scarcely rated a mention.
President George W. Bush commented on April 11 that if Iran continues [...]
Posted in dawn to decadence, geopolitics, iraq, war on April 18, 2008 | 2 Comments »
I grow more sympathetic to “Arabist” alternatives to the current Middle East equilibrium with every passing day. Israel conspicuously wastes time and money instead of doing what it obviously needs to do to defend itself. If Israel is too weak to stand up for itself, it is not worth anybody’s time.
… Netanyahu accused the Olmert [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, volatility on April 7, 2008 | No Comments »
Via the Beeb:
Iraq’s prime minister has threatened to exclude the supporters of radical cleric Moqtada Sadr from politics.
Nouri Maliki told CNN that the cleric’s movement would not be allowed to take part in elections unless it disbanded its militia, the Mehdi Army.
The prime minister and major Iraqi parties had already called for militias to be [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, politics, volatility, war on April 1, 2008 | 3 Comments »
Yesterday I confessed my surprise at the Basra operation’s having ended so quickly. It wasn’t congruent with my picture of the Mideast — that the operation is politically driven by American and Iraqi Shiite interests viz. Iran. Iran’s dominant ISCI faction, along with al-Maliki’s much weaker Dawa faction, have their own incentives to cooperate: namely [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, politics, volatility, war on March 30, 2008 | 4 Comments »
Iran’s state of play is as follows.
Ahmadinejad wants Barack Obama, not John McCain, as the next US president.
Ahmadinejad is facing severe inflation at home, brought about by an oil windfall combined with US financial sanctions. This constitutes a political threat to his survival.
The Ahmadinejad faction of the Iranian military-industrial apparatus has the most to lose [...]
Posted in bush, geopolitics, iraq, politics, volatility, war on March 28, 2008 | No Comments »
Right on cue …. via the Financial Times:
US aids Iraq security forces with air strikes
By By Steve Negus, Iraq correspondent, and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
Published: March 28 2008 18:20 | Last updated: March 28 2008 18:20
President George W. Bush on Friday called the Iraqi government offensive in Basra a “defining moment” as violence continued to [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, volatility, war on March 11, 2008 | No Comments »
Adm. Fallon was seen as the strongest anti-anti-Iran presence among military officials in command of the Middle Eastern theater of operations … as the Mideast continues to heat up …
Update: Stratfor has a smidgen of text. I heard about it walking past a CNN screen. I wish I could read the text — it sounds [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, volatility on March 11, 2008 | 5 Comments »
Syria looks poised for a palace bloodletting. Stratfor tells us that Asif Shawkat, brother-in-law of Bashar al Assad and chief of Syria’s national security apparatus, probably had a hand in the Mughniyah assassination.
… the death of Hezbollah’s most seasoned operative might not have been a surprise to certain elements of the Syrian regime. These suspicions [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, volatility on March 10, 2008 | No Comments »
Iraq: Al-Sadr To Step Back From Daily Operations
March 10, 2008 | 1413 GMT
Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr has decided to step back from day-to-day operations of his movement to focus on religious studies, but he will remain in charge of the movement, Agence France-Presse reported March 10, citing al-Sadr’s aides. The news comes after al-Sadr [...]
Posted in iraq, volatility, war on March 6, 2008 | No Comments »
This is HUGE news if true …
Shi’ite cleric and leader Muqtada Al-Sadr was secretly transferred a few days ago from Iraq to Iran for hospitalization as he was comatose.
It was reported that his illness resulted from food poisoning.
Al-Sadr is being treated by Iranian specialists, as well as by Russian doctors brought in to help the [...]
Posted in geopolitics, iraq, volatility, war on March 5, 2008 | No Comments »
March 5, 2008 | 1510 GMT
Hezbollah has told supporters and militants in Beirut and southern Lebanon to take time off from work and put themselves at the disposal of Hezbollah’s military command, a Stratfor source in Lebanon reported March 5.
Update:
March 5, 2008 | 1630 GMT
The date of future talks between the United States and Iran [...]
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