Comments for a neoconservative, mugged by reality http://cartmanist.wordpress.com Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:20:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU Comment on The mystery of the Iranian oil tankers by RG http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/05/17/the-mystery-of-the-iranian-oil-tankers/#comment-1026 RG Sun, 22 Jun 2008 23:12:25 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=556#comment-1026 Iran would be happy to sell their oil (their economy at home is not so good) but it's a high sulfur oil grade and refineries that can process it are presumably shutdown... From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCvsbL.iegY0&refer=home I doubt that if the oil was dumped that it would hamper CBGs that much. And that's assuming we would even sail in there with their silkworm missiles and the narrow confines of the Strait of Hormuz. They are certainly not friendly to us but we don't have to overreact to everything... Iran would be happy to sell their oil (their economy at home is not so good) but it’s a high sulfur oil grade and refineries that can process it are presumably shutdown…

From:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCvsbL.iegY0&refer=home

I doubt that if the oil was dumped that it would hamper CBGs that much. And that’s assuming we would even sail in there with their silkworm missiles and the narrow confines of the Strait of Hormuz.

They are certainly not friendly to us but we don’t have to overreact to everything…

]]> Comment on US regulators drive more speculation offshore by a Duoist http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/us-regulators-drive-more-speculation-offshore/#comment-1023 a Duoist Wed, 18 Jun 2008 14:39:27 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=589#comment-1023 With no proof of market manipulation, and completely ignoring the vital importance of off-setting speculators in a futures market, the regulators beat the drums to scare the politicians into increasing the regulators' budgets. Lost in the bureaucracy's pork pie is the law of supply and demand: If we want lower oil prices, drill for more oil. With no proof of market manipulation, and completely ignoring the vital importance of off-setting speculators in a futures market, the regulators beat the drums to scare the politicians into increasing the regulators’ budgets.

Lost in the bureaucracy’s pork pie is the law of supply and demand: If we want lower oil prices, drill for more oil.

]]> Comment on Same script, different day: the Asian Financial Crisis of 2008? by a Duoist http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/06/14/same-script-different-day-the-asian-financial-crisis-of-2008/#comment-1022 a Duoist Sat, 14 Jun 2008 22:52:58 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=588#comment-1022 The causes of inflation have been known for years; the cures are so politically unpalatable that central banks forever stall their implementation until the collapse has begun. It's interesting to see the rising inflation in the booming socialist nations, like Vietnam and China, and the non-boom socialist Zimbabwe. The socialist nations have just as difficult a time in biting the political bullet on fighting inflation as the capitalist countries. Central bank independence appears to be the only viable long-term solution, but it is easy to see that many countries will not allow their money supply to de-link from their politics, especially in the socialist nations which perceive all economics to be a matter of class discrimination. The causes of inflation have been known for years; the cures are so politically unpalatable that central banks forever stall their implementation until the collapse has begun.

It’s interesting to see the rising inflation in the booming socialist nations, like Vietnam and China, and the non-boom socialist Zimbabwe. The socialist nations have just as difficult a time in biting the political bullet on fighting inflation as the capitalist countries.

Central bank independence appears to be the only viable long-term solution, but it is easy to see that many countries will not allow their money supply to de-link from their politics, especially in the socialist nations which perceive all economics to be a matter of class discrimination.

]]> Comment on Huh? by a Duoist http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/06/09/huh/#comment-1016 a Duoist Mon, 09 Jun 2008 09:22:48 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=584#comment-1016 Holding rates steady is hardly the behavior of an inflation 'hawk.' Who is kidding whom? National elections are in five months, and Congress goes home to campaign for re-election beginning on July 4. The Fed is going to fight inflation in the few months just before a national election? As always, central bank "credibility," or the lack thereof, moves markets. Jawboning to influence markets will work once, maybe twice, but will forever damage the all-important credibility of a central banker. Holding rates steady is hardly the behavior of an inflation ‘hawk.’ Who is kidding whom? National elections are in five months, and Congress goes home to campaign for re-election beginning on July 4. The Fed is going to fight inflation in the few months just before a national election?

As always, central bank “credibility,” or the lack thereof, moves markets. Jawboning to influence markets will work once, maybe twice, but will forever damage the all-important credibility of a central banker.

]]> Comment on Academic malpractice by NYT front page slobbers all over BS Bernanke « a neoconservative, mugged by reality http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2007/11/26/academic-malpractice/#comment-1001 NYT front page slobbers all over BS Bernanke « a neoconservative, mugged by reality Wed, 28 May 2008 16:03:26 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2007/11/26/academic-malpractice/#comment-1001 [...] yours truly noted back in November, Charles Calomiris wrote a verbose and obtuse article for VoxEU which proclaimed [...] [...] yours truly noted back in November, Charles Calomiris wrote a verbose and obtuse article for VoxEU which proclaimed [...]

]]> Comment on Cokeflation by E. Cartman http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/stagflation-pummels-us-cocaine-market/#comment-1000 E. Cartman Wed, 28 May 2008 14:26:04 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=569#comment-1000 The prostitution market is a good indicator because both supply and demand are almost perfectly elastic. I'm surprised it's entered such a recession in London -- I knew some finance fat was being cut, but in theory, sudden, massive adjustments in that market would be very rare, relatively. The coke market is determined by the interaction between suppliers and "insurers" (government security forces on the take). In Mexico, suppliers are basically telling insurers to shove it. Anyone who reads Stratfor's Mexico security updates knows that we have an Iraq on our southern border. The Mexican government has lost effective control of the country. The prostitution market is a good indicator because both supply and demand are almost perfectly elastic. I’m surprised it’s entered such a recession in London — I knew some finance fat was being cut, but in theory, sudden, massive adjustments in that market would be very rare, relatively.

The coke market is determined by the interaction between suppliers and “insurers” (government security forces on the take). In Mexico, suppliers are basically telling insurers to shove it.

Anyone who reads Stratfor’s Mexico security updates knows that we have an Iraq on our southern border. The Mexican government has lost effective control of the country.

]]> Comment on Flogging Israel, again by Michael Feldman http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/flogging-israel-again/#comment-999 Michael Feldman Wed, 28 May 2008 06:19:49 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=568#comment-999 Yes, Israel must take immediate and strong measures to protect itself. Interfering with Lebanon’s internal crises may not necessarily be the answer. It’s been tried. The Lebanese, collectively, seems intent on throwing away whatever they had going for themselves. The once civilizing pro-Western Christian domination has been overridden by an unspoken Muslim solidarity. Opening their arms to Palestinians gave way to a state-within-a-state that inevitably took over. Jordan, Kuwait and others learned the hard way that it was not a good idea to invite large numbers of Palestinians into you home to stay. If the people of Lebanon don't want to be controlled by Hezbollah, they have to decide they are willing to fight together to rid themselves of them. Israel and the US are not obliged to save Lebanon from itself. Despite facile comparison, this isn’t 1938 all over again, and Lebanon isn’t Czechoslovakia. Hezbollah was given government empowerment by Lebanese voters. The Lebanese Sunnis let Hezbollah use Israel as an excuse for its own coup in Lebanon. If now Hezbollah attacks Israel a full scale retaliation against all anything Lebanon has would be justified. It could be interpreted as a government sponsored act with the support of the military. The gloves would be off. Let everyone wrestle with that new possibility. Mike Feldman Yes, Israel must take immediate and strong measures to protect itself. Interfering with Lebanon’s internal crises may not necessarily be the answer. It’s been tried.

The Lebanese, collectively, seems intent on throwing away whatever they had going for themselves. The once civilizing pro-Western Christian domination has been overridden by an unspoken Muslim solidarity. Opening their arms to Palestinians gave way to a state-within-a-state that inevitably took over. Jordan, Kuwait and others learned the hard way that it was not a good idea to invite large numbers of Palestinians into you home to stay.

If the people of Lebanon don’t want to be controlled by Hezbollah, they have to decide they are willing to fight together to rid themselves of them. Israel and the US are not obliged to save Lebanon from itself. Despite facile comparison, this isn’t 1938 all over again, and Lebanon isn’t Czechoslovakia. Hezbollah was given government empowerment by Lebanese voters. The Lebanese Sunnis let Hezbollah use Israel as an excuse for its own coup in Lebanon.

If now Hezbollah attacks Israel a full scale retaliation against all anything Lebanon has would be justified. It could be interpreted as a government sponsored act with the support of the military.

The gloves would be off. Let everyone wrestle with that new possibility.

Mike Feldman

]]> Comment on Cokeflation by Anonymous http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/stagflation-pummels-us-cocaine-market/#comment-998 Anonymous Tue, 27 May 2008 23:53:07 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=569#comment-998 Countervailing that in the Sindex is that the price of hookers in London (so I am told) is dropping like a rock - both in dollar terms and GBPs. Apparently supply and demand makes this market more "perfect" than Lead or Wheat. With margins in the coke biz what they are to integrated operators, and growers doing what they do often out of coercion, it can't be long before this slack demand craters price in this market too. Countervailing that in the Sindex is that the price of hookers in London (so I am told) is dropping like a rock - both in dollar terms and GBPs. Apparently supply and demand makes this market more “perfect” than Lead or Wheat.

With margins in the coke biz what they are to integrated operators, and growers doing what they do often out of coercion, it can’t be long before this slack demand craters price in this market too.

]]> Comment on Cokeflation by Michael Feldman http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/stagflation-pummels-us-cocaine-market/#comment-997 Michael Feldman Tue, 27 May 2008 21:02:04 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=569#comment-997 Not rfactored in, cocaine had much higher prices in the 80s and 90s. The collective thinking deloped that with unlimited production capacity, to increase the output, lower prices, and flood the market. A few more million became permanantly hooked by this sage strategy. No longer just a designer drug, or for hard core users, even suburban kids in schools now partake of cocaine regularly, as it has become cheaper and easier to obtain. Stage two is now to bring up the prices dramatically, and find out what the market will bear. I don't know where you buy coca futures. Mike Feldman Not rfactored in, cocaine had much higher prices in the 80s and 90s. The collective thinking deloped that with unlimited production capacity, to increase the output, lower prices, and flood the market. A few more million became permanantly hooked by this sage strategy. No longer just a designer drug, or for hard core users, even suburban kids in schools now partake of cocaine regularly, as it has become cheaper and easier to obtain.

Stage two is now to bring up the prices dramatically, and find out what the market will bear.

I don’t know where you buy coca futures.

Mike Feldman

]]> Comment on Joe Lieberman is doing what? by Michael Feldman http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/2008/05/21/joe-lieberman-is-what/#comment-994 Michael Feldman Sat, 24 May 2008 18:10:06 +0000 http://cartmanist.wordpress.com/?p=561#comment-994 Everyone knew from his distinctive baritone voice, that under the mask, Darth V was James Earl Jones ("This ... is CNN") Everyone knew from his distinctive baritone voice, that under the mask, Darth V was James Earl Jones (”This … is CNN”)

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