Thaksin Shinawatra will be returning to Thailand.
After the Thai military overthrew Thaksin’s government, Thaksin’s colossal wealth — almost certainly higher than the stated $2 billion or so — continued to fund Thailand’s political opposition. The military had vowed to restore democracy within a relatively short time frame, and now they’re stuck with the outcome.
Thaksin’s proxy party has significantly exceeded expectations, to the point that it will be able to form a stable coalition government (although it didn’t achieve an outright majority). The Thai military, which has made bloodless coups an art form, will be extremely unhappy with this outcome.
The Thai military’s domestic political situation is very similar to the US situation in Iraq, actually. It is guaranteed to lose the incrementalist political-infighting game. Its trump card is the credible threat of a massive conventional escalation, kind of like the American threat of bombing Iran into the Stone Age once Iranian proxies start winning too much in Iraq.