I was amazed when Hillary managed to win the “second super Tuesday” showdown in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. However, this fundamentally does not change the fact that Hillary is facing a forced checkmate.
Obama won Wyoming about 60-40, meaning that Hillary’s pledged delegate gap (the delegates allocated on the basis of “the will of the people” primaries and caucuses) has yawned two delegates wider — 1387 to 1238.
On Tuesday, Mississippi will vote. Its population is about 37 percent black. I expect Obama to mop up 80 percent of the state’s delegates. Clinton will probably win Pennsylvania by about fifteen points, and Kentucky and Indiana will be friendly turf for her as well–but North Carolina will be heavily favored for Obama.
Clinton is toast.
The markets need to factor Obama in, and the market particularly needs to know what Obama will do about the capital gains tax rate, which is set to reset immediately after Obama takes office. A restoration of the pre-2003 capital gains structure (20 percent long term, sliding scale up to 35 percent — 40 once the Democrats kill the income tax cut — in the near term) will mean a drop in equities prices of 10 to 15 percent.