Apparently luck had it that every single Chinese ADR, and more than a few others, trooped to the United States to make their pitches to US investors. I got to listen to more than a few of them over the past four days (one reason why the post count has run low).
American institutional investors are quite concerned about the post-Olympic dampening effect, and are also concerned about inflation. The CFOs I talked to informed me that their internal inflation forecasts are running in the 12 to 15 percent range, basically dependent upon whether they think China’s price blowout (recently concentrated in food) is permanent or transitory.
While the meteoric increase in food prices has abated somewhat, oil and metals have gotten worse. Chinese manufacturers, refiners, and banks are eating fierce losses. The distribution of said losses among the three groups is unclear, but the existence of enormous losses is a matter of fact.
The CFOs I talked to generally represented IT companies, which are heavily insulated from raw materials inflation, if not wage inflation. I would imagine the outlook at more BTU-intensive companies is significantly worse.